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CHAPTER 3                  FINANCE AND PLANNING

3.1        Introduction

To design the present and future development programs, the district need to know the size, quality and growth of its population. This chapter looks at population characteristics, socio-economic characteristics, planning and budgeting process, revenue sources and sectoral expenditure.

 

3.2        Population characteristics

3.2.1     Population Size and Growth

The 2002 Population and Housing Census reveal that Luwero district had 341,317 persons as shown in Table 3.1. The population increased by 33,120 people from 1980 to 1991 and 85,927 persons between 1991 and 2002 and 116,841 by the year 2014 with an annual growth rate of 1.3 percent and 2.5 percent respectively.

 

Table 3.1 Population of Luwero District for the past three consecutive census years

Sex Census Survey Year
1980 1991 2002 2014
Males 112,078 126,537 167,979 230,451
Females 110,192 128,853 173,338 226,507
Total 222,270 255,390 341,317 456,953

Source: census Surveys: 1980, 1991, 2002 & 2014

The results as per 2014 national population and housing census conducted in August 2014

There has been a consecutive increase in the trend where this time the male were more than females indicating a higher sex ratio in district and also this could be due to women’s vulnerability to death which could lead to reduced number in women.

3.2.2     Population Distribution

This refers to the way people are spread over in a specified geographical area.Zirobwe Sub county was most populous than Kamira sub county which had the least number of people.

Table 3.2 shows the population projections of Luwero District by sex per Sub County. It reveals that the district was estimated to have 462,800 people in the year 2014, while it is compared to the 2014 provisional census results reveals a population size of only 458158 people. For the parish population projections refer to appendix Table A 1.

Table 3.2          Population Projections by gender per Sub County

Sub county/ Town council 2011                    2012                    2013 *2014
M F Total M F Total M F Total M F Total
Bamunanika 15,400 15,800 31,200 15,900 16,200 32,100 16,300 16,600 32900 14801 15059 29860
Kalagala 20,300 20,700 41,000 20,900 21,200 42,100 21,400 21,700 43100 21874 22380 44254
Kamira 13,000 12,400 25,400 13,300 12,700 26,000 13,700 13,000 26700 13697 12564 26261
Kikyusa 15,200 15,300 30,500 15,700 15,600 31,300 16,100 16,000 32100 17199 17031 34230
Zirobwe 21,900 22,500 44,400 22,500 23,000 45,500 23,200 23,600 46800 22698 22513 45211
Bombo T/c 10,200 10,800 21,000 10,500 11,100 21,600 10,800 11,300 22100 12421 13706 26127
Butuntumula 18,100 18,600 36,700 18,600 19,100 37,700 19,100 19,500 38600 17639 17609 35248
Katikamu 21,200 21,400 42,600 21,800 21,900 43,700 22,400 22,400 44800 21043 22534 43577
Luwero S/C 17,800 18,000 35,800 18,300 18,400 36,700 18,800 18,800 37600 17088 16672 33760
Luwero T/C 13,800 15,700 29,500 14,200 16,100 30,300 14,600 16,500 31100 19590 23072 42662
Makiulubita 16,300 16,400 32,700 16,800 16,800 33,600 17,200 17,200 34400 16742 16276 33018
Nyimbwa 17,400 17,200 34,600 17,900 17,600 35,500 18,400 18,000 36400 18597 18085 36682
Wobulenzi 11,000 12,700 23,700 11,300 13,000 24,300 11,600 13,300 24900 12315 14765 27080
Total 211,600 217,500 429,100 217,700 222,700 440,200 223,600 227,900 451,500 225728 232430 458158

Source: Census 2014, *2014=Population Figures as per the 2014 national population and housing census provisional results

There was slightly a less population as shown in provisional results compared to the population projected. This could be by the time of projection people might have migrated to other districts and those borne being few compared to the actual count.

3.2.3     Religious composition

Religion is a system of thought feeling and action that is shared by a group of individuals where in Luwero district is characterized by a diversity of religious beliefs and practice. According to 2002 Census, Anglican was the most dominant religion at 37 percent followed by the Catholics at 32 percent, while the seventh day Adventist were the minority contributing to only 3.4 percent as shown in Table 3.3

Table 3.3 Distribution of the population by Religious Composition

Religious Group Population Percentage
Catholics 108,725 31.9
Anglicans 126,431 37.1
SDA 11,509 3.4
Pentecostal 13,006 3.8
Moslem 76,098 22.3
Other 4,987 1.5
None 486 0.1
Total 341,242 100.0

Source: Census 2002

3.2.4     Citizenship

Citizenship is a status of a person that is recognized by law as being a member of a given country .it is used to identify the population that is eligible for certain public service such as employment, Education and health services. Majority of the population of Luwero were Ugandans constituting 94 percent of the total population and 6% are non Ugandans as shown in Table 3.4

Table 3.4          Distribution of the population by Citizenship

Citizenship Number Percent
Ugandans 319,177 93.53
Kenya 264 0.08
Tanzania 9,568 2.80
Rwanda 3,841 1.13
Burundi 7,670 2.25
Sudan 191 0.06
Democratic Republic of Congo 205 0.06
Other Africa 57 0.02
Others 269 0.1
Total 341,242 100.0

Source: Census 2002

Ethnicity

Ethnicity is the state of belonging to a social group with a common culture, Tradition and language. In Luwero Baganda comprises of the highest number people followed by Baruli.The number of tribe with the least number is the lugbara.

Table 3.5: Distributions of District Population by ethnic Group

Ethnic Groups Population Percent
Baganda 242,810 76.1
Baluri 10,333 3.2
Itesot 7,340 2.3
Nubians 8,678 2.7
Banyamkole 6,772 2.1
Banyarwanda 5,305 1.7
Basoga 4,950 1.6
Alur 3,774 1.2
Lugbara 3,423 1.1
Others 25,792 8.1
Total 319,177 100.0

Source: Census 2002

3.2.6     Age groups

The age distribution is a reflection of the past fertility and Mortality behavior of the population. In absence of high migration or drastic changes in births and deaths, the young population is expected to constitute a high percentage than the older population. According to the 2002 Population and Housing Census, majority of the population of Luwero were made up of children (below 18 years) constituting 59 percent, while the elderly contributed to only five percent of the population as indicated in Table 3.6.

Table 3.6: Distribution of the population for selected age group

Age Index/ Selected Population
                 Number                    Percent
Less than 5 Years 63,695 18.7
Primary School Age Population (6 - 12 Years) 82,474 24.0
Population age less than 15 years 178,880 52.4
Secondary School Age (13 - 19 Years) 55,044 16.1
Adolescents (10 - 24Years) 116,090 34.0
University Age (20 - 24 Years) 26,448 7.8
Children (Below 18 years) 201,297 59.0
Adults (18 Years and Above) 139,945 41.0
Youths (18 - 30 Years) 67,618 19.8
Working Age Group (15 – 64 Years) 149,414 43.8
Elderly (60 Years and above 18,634 5.0
Girls Below 16 (Below official marriage Age) 96,299 28.2
Women of Child Bearing Age (15 – 49 Years) 69,001 20.2
Women 50+ Years (Above Child Bearing Age) 15,791 4.6
Dependency ratio 128  

Source: Census 2002

Table 3.7 reveals that by 2012, the number of children (0-17 years) in the district had risen to 259,700 persons. In 2002,

The population and housing census showed that they were 201,297 children in Luwero District. There are more children under 18 years compared to the working age group of 44 percent and this increasing the dependency ratio in the district.

Table 3.7          Population Projections for the different age groups by gender

Age Group 2010 2011 2012
  M F Total M F Total M F Total
LUWERO      205,600      212,400      418,000      211,500        217,500      429,000      217,500        222,700      440,200
3-5 Years        24,100        23,000        47,100        24,800          23,600        48,400        25,500          24,100        49,600
6 Years          7,900          7,800        15,700          8,100            8,000        16,100          8,300            8,200        16,500
12 Years          7,600          7,400        15,000          7,800            7,600        15,400          8,000            7,800        15,800
6-12 Years        50,800        50,300      101,100        52,200          51,500      103,700        53,700          52,700      106,400
13 Years          6,500          6,500        13,000          6,700            6,700        13,400          6,900            6,800        13,700
18 Years          4,000          4,300          8,300          4,100            4,400          8,500          4,200            4,500          8,700
13-18 Years        30,800        29,700        60,500        31,600          30,400        62,000        32,500          31,200        63,700
18+ Years        80,700        90,700      171,400        83,000          92,900      175,900        85,400          95,100      180,500
15-49 Years        78,400        84,600      163,000        80,600          86,600      167,200        82,900          88,700      171,600
5-17 Years        85,400        83,100      168,500        87,900          85,100      173,000        90,400          87,100      177,500
18-30 Years        38,500        44,300        82,800        39,600          45,400        85,000        40,700          46,500        87,200
14-64 Years        93,300      101,400      194,700        96,000        103,900      199,900        98,700        106,300      205,000
10-24 Years        69,800        72,400      142,200        71,800          74,100      145,900        73,800          75,900      149,700
12-17 Years        34,400        32,800        67,200        35,400          33,600        69,000        36,400          34,400        70,800
10+ Years      128,900      137,100      266,000      132,600        140,400      273,000      136,400        143,700      280,100
60+ Years        10,900        12,000        22,900        11,200          12,200        23,400        11,500          12,500        24,000
0-17 Years      124,900      121,700      246,600      128,500        124,600      253,100      132,100        127,600      259,700
20-24 Years        14,500        17,900        32,400        14,900          18,400        33,300        15,300          18,800        34,100
Under One Year          8,000          8,000        16,000          8,200            8,200        16,400          8,400            8,400        16,800
15-24 Years        35,800        39,200        75,000        36,800          40,200        77,000        37,900          41,100        79,000
10-14 Years        34,000        33,200        67,200        35,000          34,000        69,000        36,000          34,800        70,800
0-4 Years        39,500        38,500        78,000        40,600          39,500        80,100        41,800          40,400        82,200

Source: Census 2002


3.2.7     Population Density

The concept of population density is a measure of population concentration in an area and is derived and divided as a ratio of the total population of a given area to the total land area expressed in square kilometer. The population density in this report is given with reference to persons per square kilometer of land area.

 

P

Luwero district has become increasingly more densely populated. In 1980 the population density was 86 persons per square kilometer and it increased to 99 persons per square kilometer in 1991. The results of 2002 census show that Luwero had a population density of 132 persons per square kilometer. Figure 3.1 shows the population density of Luwero district by Sub County.

 

Figure 3.1   MAP OF LUWERO SHOWING POPULATION DENSITY BY SUB COUNTY IN 2002

 

Source: District Planning Unit

Figure 3.1 shows the population density of Luwero district by sub-county and town councils (Bombo TC, Wobulenzi TC & Bombo TC) are more densely populated than any other sub county with a range of 284-2131 persons per square kilometer followed by Nyimbwa and Sub County with 229-283 persons per square kilometer. This means that population and birth/fertility control measures have to be put into consideration if sustainable development and effective utilization of available resources are to be maximized.

3.2.8     Urbanization

 

Table 3.2.9: Population Distribution by Sex, Residence and Population Size, 2014

Sex Males 225,728
Females 232,430
Total 458,158
Residence Urban 96,131
Rural 362,027
Total 458,158
Population Type Household 448,912
Non-Household 9,246
Total  NA 458,158

Source: National Population and housing Census provisional Results, November 2014

In Uganda the definition of urban areas has been changing over time, the 2002 and 2014 census defined urban areas to include only the gazetted urban centers. Most people in Luwero reside in rural areas accounting to five times more than the urban residents. This is true with the Uganda population where majority reside in rural areas and 96131 (21percent) of the people were found to be urban dwellers. Female had bigger number than the male.

Table 3.3.0: Distribution of Urban Centers by Size, 2014

  Number of Urban Centers Total Population Share of the Total
Males Females Total
More than 250,000 0 0 0 0 0%
100,000 – 250,000 0 0 0 0 0%
50,000 – 100,000 0 0 0 0 0%
25,000 – 50,000 3 44,441 51,690 96,131 100%
10,000 – 25,000 0 0 0 0 0%
Less than 10,000 0 0 0 0 0%
Total 3 44441 51690 96131 100%

Source: National Population and housing Census provisional Results, November 2014

Table 3.3.1: Population Distribution by Urban Centers and Size, 2014

Town Council Males Females Total
Bombo Town Council 12,565 13,805 26,370
Luwero Town Council 19,599 23,135 42,734
Wobulenzi Town Council 12,277 14,750 27,027
Total 44,441 51,690 96,131

Source: National Population and housing Census provisional Results, November 2014

 

2002

The district has got three gazetted urban centers namely Luwero, Wobulenzi and Bombo Town councils. Table 3.3.1 reveals that a total of 42734 people settled in Luwero town council than in the other two town councils .This could be because Luwero town council is within the district and service delivery is more efficient at the district than in other town councils.

Figure 3.2         Rural – Urban Population Distribution

 

Source: National Population and housing Census provisional Results, November 2014

The results of 2002 Census revealed that 17 percent of the population in Luwero lived in urban centers as shown in figure 3 .2. There was slight increase in number of people who settled in Luwero compared to the previous census.4 Percent of the people migrated from village to the urban centers in Luwero district. This could be due to increased service delivery and accessible transport from rural areas which link the people to the Towns in the district.

3.2.9     Literacy Rates

Table 3.8 shows the percentage distribution of the population aged 10 years and above by literacy rate, sex and age group. The literacy rate in the district according to 2002 census was 79 percent. Among the literate persons, the majority were males and female were the most illiterate. It is noticeable that the majority of the literate persons were below 30 years of age with a 69 percent literacy rate. Among the illiterate persons, it is evident that majority were the elderly (persons aged 60 years and above) constituting 23 percent. Illiteracy rates were predominant among the adults (persons aged 18 years and above).


Table 3.8          Literacy rate by age groups and sex

Age groups Literate Illiterate
Male Female Total Male Female Total
10-14 25.6 26.7 26.1 29.9 16.3 22.0
15-19 18.6 18.9 18.7 7.7 4.9 6.1
20-24 12.0 14.6 13.3 7.9 8.2 8.1
25-29 10.8 11.2 11.0 8.3 8.4 8.4
30-34 8.7 7.8 8.2 7.4 7.5 7.5
35-39 6.5 6.2 6.4 5.5 6.4 6.0
40-44 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.2 6.7 5.7
45-49 3.1 2.8 3.0 2.9 5.3 4.3
50-54 2.5 2.3 2.4 3.4 6.9 5.4
55-59 1.6 1.2 1.4 2.6 4.4 3.6
60+ 5.7 3.5 4.6 20.3 25.0 23.0
Overall 50.3 49.7 78.6 42.0 58.0 21.4

Source: Census 2002

3.3        Socio-economic Characteristics

3.3.1     Housing Conditions by type of house (materials for walls, floor, and roof)

Housing is one of the basic human needs that have impact on the health, welfare, social attitude and economic productivity of an individual. It’s also one of the indicators of standard of living in the society.                                          

The type of materials used for construction of a dwelling unit or house is a good indicator of how well off households in terms housing. According to the 2002 Census roofing iron sheets were the most commonly used for roofing (84 percent) in the district. Prevalence of iron sheet roofed dwelling units was higher in urban areas (93percent) compared to 81 percent in rural areas. Table 3.9 shows the distribution of households by construction material.

Majority of the households (44 percent) lived in dwelling units whose walls were constructed using stabilized bricks and this was predominant among the urban areas at 66 percent. The dwelling units whose walls were constructed using mud and pole constituted 39 percent with a high prevalence among rural households at 45 percent.

The 2002 Census further revealed that 64 percent of the households lived in dwelling units whose floor was made of rammed earth.

Table 3.9          Distribution of households by Construction materials of dwelling units (%)

Construction material

                 Residence

                             Total

   Rural    Urban
Roof Material      
Iron sheets 81.3 93.7 83.6
Tiles 0.3 0.3 0.3
Asbestos 0.3 4.1 1
Concrete 0.1 0.3 0.1
Tins 0.2 0.1 0.2
Thatch 17.6 1.3 14.5
Other 0.4 0.2 0.3
Total 100 100 100
       
Wall Material      
Concrete 1.6 1.1 1.5
Cement blocks 4.3 12.1 5.7
Stones 0.3 0.1 0.2
Stabilised brick 39.1 65.9 44.1
Unburnt bricks with cement 2.9 2.6 2.9
Unburnt bricks with mud 5.4 3 4.9
Wood 0.8 0.3 0.7
Mud and pole 45.2 12.9 39.1
Other 0.5 2.1 0.8
Total 100 100 100
       
Floor Material      
Concrete 5.4 17.3 7.6
Brick 0.8 0.7 0.8
Stone 0.8 0.2 0.7
Cement screed 18.2 58.4 25.8
Rammed earth 73.4 23 63.9
Wood 0.5 0.1 0.4
Other 0.8 0.3 0.7
Total 100 100 100

Source: Census 2002

3.3.2     Source of cooking fuel

Firewood was the major source of fuel for cooking for households as shown in Table 3.10. The 2002 census showed that 81 percent of the household used firewood for cooking, while 15 percent used charcoal. More firewood is used in rural areas at 91 percent whereas charcoal is the popular choice among urban dwellers at 52 percent. The percentage of households that did not use wood fuel for cooking was only 4.2 percent implying that the level of deforestation was too high hence a need to sensitize the population on importance of tree planting.

Table 3.10: Distribution of household by source of fuel for cooking (%)

Source of fuel                              Residence                                        Total
  Rural Urban  
Electricity 0.2 9.0 1.9
Gas 0.1 0.2 0.2
Paraffin 1.4 3.1 1.8
Charcoal 6.9 51.7 15.3
Firewood 91.2 34.7 80.5
Cow dung or grass (reeds) 0.1 0.0 0.0
Biogas 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.1 1.2 0.3
Total 100 100 100

Source: Census 2002

3.3.3:    Source of lighting fuel

According to 2002 census, the main source of fuel for lighting in Luwero district was paraffin using “Tadooba” which constituted 79 percent of the total households as revealed in Table 3.11. This was more prevalent in the rural areas at 88 percent compared to 41 percent in urban areas. The pattern was higher than that observed for the whole country which was 75 percent of the total households with rural at 82 percent and urban 33 percent. The use of electricity in the district was still very low at only 9 percent of the total households. This was slightly higher than the national average which was 8 percent.

Table 3.11: Distribution of households by source of fuel for lighting

Source of fuel                                                    Residence  
  Rural Urban Total
Electricity 3.1 33.9 8.9
Gas 0.2 0.2 0.2
Paraffin (lantern) 7.2 23.8 10.3
Paraffin (Tadooba) 87.6 40.5 78.8
Candle wax 0.6 1.3 0.7
Firewood 1.2 0.2 1.0
Cow dung or grass (reeds) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total 100 100 100

Source: Census 2002

 Main source of Household livelihood

Majority of the households 66 percent depend on subsistence farming as their main source of livelihood as revealed in Table 3.12. Dependence on subsistence farming as a source of livelihood was more prevalent in rural areas at 76 percent compared to 22 percent in urban areas. Only 16 percent of the households were dependant on employment income, while 7 percent depended on business enterprises and 8.6 percent depended on family support.


Table 3.12: Distribution of households by source of livelihood

Source of livelihood                              Residence  
  Rural Urban Total
Subsistence farming 75.7 22.2 65.6
Employment income 9.4 44.2 15.9
Business enterprise 4.3 18.5 7.0
Cottage industry 0.2 0.7 0.3
Property income 0.7 1.3 0.8
Family support 7.9 11.5 8.6
Organizational support 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 1.8 1.6 1.8

Source: Census 2002

 Percentage of population below poverty line

According to the survey on poverty carried out by UBOS in 2005, on average Luwero was found out to have 30 percent of it is population living below the poverty line, which is lower than the National average of 31 percent. However, Kamira Sub County had the highest poverty rate of 32 percent followed by Kikyusa at 26 percent, while Wobulenzi Town council had the lowest poverty rate at 4 percent. The most probable reason for Kamira having the highest poverty rate could be due to the fact that the area is dry and crop production becomes hard since it’s a cattle corridor.. All Town councils have a poverty rate of less than 8 percent. Table 3.13 shows the poverty rates of the different sub counties with Luwero district.

 Table 3.13: Luwero district Poverty rates by Sub County of as of 2005

District/County/Sub county Estimated no. of poor individuals Estimated no. of Individuals interviewed 2005 Individual head count (% Individuals below poverty line)
Luwero District 126,995 417,472 30.42
     Bamunanika 31,117 136,777 22.75
       Bamunanika 5,249 24,289 21.61
       Zirobwe 7,222 35,684 20.24
       Kikyusa 6,268 24,247 25.85
       Kalagala 5,948 32,629 18.23
       Kamira 6,433 19,928 32.28
   Katikamu County 23,234 160,013 14.52
       Luwero S/C 6,374 28,879 22.07
       Luwero T/C 1,838 23,264 7.9
       Wobulenzi T/C 795 18,526 4.29
       Nyimbwa 2,455 18,484 13.28
       Bombo T/C 1,190 16,685 7.13
       Katikamu 4,321 27,157 15.91
       Butuntumula 4,779 18,083 26.43
       Makulubita 1,480 8,935 16.56

Source: UDHS/ UBOS 2005

 Finance

Revenue performance

Table 3.14: Budget out turn for FY 2015/206

Revenue source Budget Supplementary estimates Revised estimates Est. actual (shs ‘000’) % Realization % contribution to budget
(shs ‘000’) (shs ‘000’) (shs ‘000’)
Local revenue 381,473        9,846      391,319                          343,407 87.75632 0.91345536
     Unconditional grant 7,924,746                          1,681,852   4.473688551
Conditional grant 30,680,186                        35,174,089   93.56228537
Donor funds 613,193                              394,955   1.050570717
Total 39,599,868  9,846,000  391,319,000                    37,594,302  87.8%  99.3%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Source: Finance Department 2016

From Table 3.14, it is shown that in 2015/2016 financial year reveals that the district budgeted for Shs.39, 599,868,000 and it realized Shs.336,185,323 ,36,198,927 and 394,954,733 from local revenue, Government grants and Donor respectively which represents a performance of 86 percent ,95 % and 44 % respectively. The central government finances the highest proportion (94%) of the district budget, while local revenue and donations contributes 0.9% percent and one percent respectively.

3.4.2     Sectoral Expenditure

The total budgeted expenditure for F.Y 2015/016 was shs 40,779,199,093, out of which shs 38,494,994,190 was actually spent representing 94.4 percent. The health sector achieved the highest performance at 101.6 percent, while finance department had 7.2 percent as shown in Table 3.15

 Table 3.15: Expenditure by Sector for F.Y 2015/2016

  Sector 2015/2016
                   Budget                                             Actual                                      percent                    
1 Management & Support Services 4,535,151,736 3,968,393,314 87.5
2 Finance 422,053,000 32,776,549 7.8
3 Statutory Bodies 662,262,000 622,469,945 93.9
4 Planning 1,498,262,000 1,416,696,783 94.5
5 Health 5,154,242,000 5,237,832,471 101.6
6 Education & Sports 24,006,669,000 24,109,983,809 100.4
7 Works and Technical Services 1,991,121,000 1,607,779,771 80.7
8 Natural Resources 166,903,000 153,279,202 91.8
9 Community Based Services 640,744,324 477,004,325 74.4
10 Production & Marketing 540,454,000 505,080,914 93.4
11 Internal Audit 90,837,000 68,727,107 75.7
  Total 40,779,119,093 38,494,994,190 94.4

Source: Finance Department 2016

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